October Market Update

Happy (Almost) Holidays! The lights are up on Ocean Avenue, and holiday shopping has begun. Real estate-wise, things finally started to slow in our overall market for October. This is typical as we approach the holiday season. Carmel remained fairly strong while other upper end areas such as Pebble Beach and the Carmel Highlands quieted, noticeably. Below are your October statistics.

Pebble Beach yielded 11 closed home sales from $399k to $2.179M for an upper end condo at 78 Spanish Bay Circle. Only 4 were over $1M. We saw new transactions slowing with only 7 new home sales, from list prices of $728k to $2.4M at 1261 Lisbon Lane. 1439 Oleanda Rd went pending at a list of $1,650,000 after only 9 days on the market. There was one closed lot sale on a wooded lot on Mora Lane for $400k.

Carmel slowed just a bit from the previous month with 22 closed home sales from $500k to $3.4M, 4 of which fell into the Golden Rectangle. The highest price for a closed home was $3.4M at 26392 Valley View Ave on Carmel Point. There were 19 new home sales, 3 of which were in the Golden Rectangle, and the highest of which was again on Carmel Point at 2465 Bay View at a list of $3.195M. Again we see the Carmel Point area boasting high end activity due to it’s overall value and proximity to the beach. There was 1 closed lot sale at 26026 Ridgewood Road for $938,433.00. This was an 8,200 sq ft lot by Mission Trail Park to the East of Junipero Street.

The Carmel Highlands dropped off a bit and had 3 closed home sales at $725k, $730k and $1,050,000.00, all of which had minimum to some water views. No new home sales.There was 1 new land sale at 164 Corona Rd for $1.9M, which went pending in 28 days. This included 85 acres and an existing well, and had active permits for a 6500 sq ft home and caretakers unit.

There were 13 closed home sales in Carmel Valley, from $180k for a Carmel Hacienda condo, to $1.76M for a 3870 sq ft home on a private, 1 acre lot on Prado Del Sol. There were 15 new sales, again at the Carmel Hacienda condos for $333k, to $5.495M for a 3 year old home and high-end finishes in Tehama at 25805 Via Malpaso with 5667 sq ft and 12.9 acres. There were 5 closed lot sales from $165k to $1.1M (Preserve). Only 1 new land sale, also in the Preserve, at $650k.

Save for our seasonal slowing, we continue to see growth in the overall real estate market.

Sellers must be realistic when setting their home’s price

Sellers can be very unrealistic about price. There are several problems with this, some obvious, others not so obvious. For the most part, the reason for this is what is called the endowment effect. Behavioral economics studies find that humans tend to overvalue their possessions compared with the value the market will actually bear for those possessions. It’s important for home sellers to remember that it’s no different with cars than it is for real estate.  An educated buyer is extremely unlikely to make any offer on a property when they can purchase a comparable property for a lower price. Of a group of comparable properties, you as a seller want to be priced slightly lower than the rest. When you price higher, or even at the same level as everyone else, a couple of things happen:

1. The few buyers that may be interested in your home, have done their homework and put their time in to know the market, see your home and move on, unlikely to revisit as the excitement of your property being a new listing has subdued. Most of the potential buyers now viewing your home are not in the final stage of buying and are unfocused.

2. Your home doesn’t get exposure to those buyers that know the values and are searching for the right deal on the internet under a certain price point.

3. One of the comparable homes to yours decides to lower their price, and sells. As a result, the value of your home and it’s comparables is brought down even lower.

4. When you finally come to a point where you decide to lower your home to the right price, you’ve lost momentum, and the extensive time on the market results in your loss of negotiating power. This often results in a lower final selling price than what you would have received had you only brought the home to market at the correct price originally.

It is important to remember that there are 2 ways to price your home. To sell it, or to sell somebody else’s. Are you with me? You can’t change the value of your home simply because you want more money for it. The value of your home generally remains the same regardless of your agent. You as a seller only have control of 3 things;  price,  terms  and condition of property .

 

September Market Update

September surged forward with Carmel and Pebble Beach real estate both increasing in sales activity. Carmel Highlands real estate stayed about level with August, and Carmel Valley real estate more than doubled it’s production from the previous month. This year has really been one for the books. 2011 was marked by stubborn sellers, rigid buyers and 6 month escrows that loved to fall out right before closing (my favorite!!). 2012 on the other hand, has seen buyers and sellers meeting in the middle, and of course inventory dropping sharply as a direct result. Banks have become somewhat streamlined in their approval process of foreclosures (and even short sales!), and with different tax breaks expiring, and our Presidential election coming up in a month, buyers are rushing to find that perfect home in whats left of a buyer’s market. All these factors are contributing to the beginning of a strong fourth quarter. I have enjoyed watching homes sell in certain areas where comparable homes sometimes sold only at the beginning of the year for 3% and 4% less! I am hoping that this trend continues as our market makes some strong corrections.

Pebble Beach real estate upped the ante a little last month with 10 closed home sales ranging from $677K to $3.45M. There were two closed land sales at $325K and $750K. 11 total new home sales went under contract from a list price of $399K to $1.995M, and another home at $15M- 3296 17 Mile Drive, which sits on 2.75 grassy, oceanfront acres just to the North of the Lodge. There was a notable new land sale at the Cypress Point Gold Club for $4.95M, on almost 2 acres with golf course and water views.

Carmel Highlands real estate saw no closed transactions, but 4 new homes went into escrow at $995K, $1.199M, $1.25M and $5.95M right on the water. 3 of the 4 had an ocean view. There was also one new ocean view lot sale at $699K.

Carmel real estate saw an increase of both closed escrows and new home sales. There were 27 closed home sales ranging from $335K for a 1 bed condo on Mission St, to $2.8M for a brand new 3,400 sq ft spec home on 4th & Casanova. 6 of the closed transactions were in the Golden Rectangle at $1.1M, $1.15M, $1.175M, $1.25M, $2.15M and $2.3M. There were 22 total new home sales, from $529K to $2.35M, and one at $5.595M at 26387 Isabella on Carmel Point, actually fronting on Scenic Drive, with street access on Isabella. There was also one new lot sale at $995K in the Hatton Fields area of Carmel near the top of ocean, and no closed land sales. Carmel-by-the-Sea real estate continues to be a strong frontrunner.

Carmel Valley real estate hit an end of summer home run, doubling activity with 16 closed home sales from $320K to $1.45M, and 19 new home sales, 7 of which were in the upper end of the market from $1.1M to $4.25M.

Looking like good things on the horizon for our beautiful area. The Carmel Arts and Film Festival kicks off tonight at the Sunset Center, following the Blue Ocean Film Festival, which 2 weeks ago raised awareness of our ocean’s ecosystems. The action never ends! Hope to see you all there.

August Market Update

Please excuse the August market update being so late this month- We had some technical difficulties with our website’s back end that took quite awhile to resolve. Back in business now! Just a quick breakdown of the market for this month….

August brought with it a slowing of new home sales that is typical as we break into the Fall quarter. Specifically, Carmel Valley and Pebble Beach new activity dropped to about half, which is due in part to the low inventory we’ve been experiencing. Pebble Beach had a couple big sales- 2 closed at $7.178M and $8M, respectively, and another new sale at 3371 17 Mile Drive for $12.75M. It will be interesting to see at what number it closes, and of course it’s nice to see the high-end market continue to get traction even with a general, seasonal slowing in Pebble Beach real estate. The Carmel Highlands, for being such a small area, continue to get activity in the high-end range with another closed sale at 169 Spindrift for $10.5M. And as always, the “bread and butter” of our area, Carmel and Carmel-by-the-Sea, proper, maintained with steady closed and new sales, and 3 closed sales in the Golden Rectangle.

Below are your August statistics. As always please send any market questions or friends my way. Take care.

Pebble Beach Real Estate
8 closed sales, 6 from $399K to $2.2M, and 2 at $7.178M and $8M. 3 total were on the estate side of Pebble Beach, closest to the Carmel access gate.
4 new sales. 3 at $685K, $695K and $875K on the Pacific Grove side of Pebble Beach, with the fourth new sale on the estate side at $12.75M.

Carmel Real Estate
22 closed sales, from $300K to $3.485M.
20 new sales, from $349K to $3.995M, which was a new sale at 2337 Bay View Ave in Carmel Point.

Carmel Highlands Real Estate
1 closed sale at $10.5M.
3 new sales at $774K, $1.05M and $1.175M, 2 of which had an ocean view.

Carmel Valley Real Estate
8 closed sales from $430K to $985K.
8 new sales from $223K to $950K, spread evenly, the highest of which being a short sale, 4 bedroom house on an acre in the Los Laureles Lodge area.

July Market Update

 

Car week is upon us! Come next week, the Monterey Peninsula will experience an influx of car enthusiasts and rare automobiles from all over the world. Being somewhat of a self-proclaimed car guy, his is my favorite event of the year. If I’m going to sit in an hour of traffic to go from Carmel Valley to downtown Carmel-by-the-Sea, I would prefer to look at Italian sports cars and one-off prototypes rather than a sea of AT&T courtesy cars. Just kidding….I love courtesy cars.

All joking aside, the Italian and Pebble Beach Concours’, along with Historic auto races and auctions next week, are a great time to showcase Carmel and Pebble Beach real estate. Sales have stayed relatively steady through the last month- mid-Summer is generally one of the year’s slowest times and we have seen a little slowing.  Carmel Valley property saw the heaviest action, with Carmel and Pebble Beach trailing close behind. Pebble Beach real estate is actually showing signs of increasing momentum.. Carmel-by-the-sea real estate looked sharp with 4 closed sales and 7 new sales just in the Golden Rectangle, the downtown area’s most sought after pocket. From an investment standpoint, this area offers quick turn around and continues to be hot. One particular sale of note was on San Antonio 2SW 11th at $5.7M from a list of $6.95M almost a year before. The Carmel Highlands have seen some big sales; the 3 highest at  a list of $4.45M, a closed sale at $9.25M and another pending sale at a list of $13.5M. It’s great to see the higher-end market get more and more traction here and also in Pebble Beach.

Although we’ve seen mild slowing in the $1M to $1.5 range, I predict it has most to do with the time of year and also a lack of inventory now that buyers have been out in force since the Spring. Especially encouraging is the over 4% rise of housing prices from this time a year ago, on a national level. This is interesting when considering we are a stronger market than most of the country. It’s great to feel so much movement in the Pebble Beach and Carmel real estate markets, and I’m excited to see what this next week brings.

Also as an announcement, I have moved to David Lyng Real Estate on Lincoln between Ocean and 7th in downtown Carmel, almost right next to the Cypress Inn, which I’m very excited about! Below are your actual statistics for each area……….

Carmel

11 closed sales, between $540K and $1.75M, with one at $5.75M

23 new sales, between $445K and $3.895M

Carmel Highlands

 2 closed sales, at about $1M and $9.25M

2 new sales, at $13.5M and $4.45M

Pebble Beach

12 closed sales between $380K to $2.5M, spread evenly, and one at $5.65M, which was a Del Ciervo view property.

11 new sales, 2 on the estate side at $6.25M and $9.375M, respectively, and a foreclosed lot on Sombria at a list of $2.8M. Pebble Beach seems to be finally starting to make a healthy comeback.

Carmel Valley

19 closed sales from $329K to $3.8M. The Del Mesa and also Carmel Hacienda 55 yr and older condos are getting a lot of action. There was also a foreclosed lot at $720K in Tehama.

22 new sales from $229K to $2.2M

 

Our Market has officially turned!

This is a great article from the Wall Street Journal which brings to light what I’ve been saying for the past 6 months- Now is the time to buy! Carmel-by-the-Sea real estate, Carmel Valley property, and even Pebble Beach real estate are experiencing really healthy activity. for the last 2 quarters. The market has indeed, turned.

“The housing market has turned—at last.

The U.S. finally has moved beyond attention-grabbing predictions from housing “experts” that housing is bottoming. The numbers are now convincing.

Nearly seven years after the housing bubble burst, most indexes of house prices are bending up. “We finally saw some rising home prices,” S&P’s David Blitzer said a few weeks ago as he reported the first monthly increase in the slow-moving S&P/Case-Shiller house-price data after seven months of declines.

The U.S. finally has moved beyond attention-grabbing predictions from housing “experts” that housing is bottoming. The numbers are now convincing, according to David Wessel on The News Hub. (Photo: Bloomberg News)

Nearly 10% more existing homes were sold in May than in the same month a year earlier, many purchased by investors who plan to rent them for now and sell them later, an important sign of an inflection point. In something of a surprise, the inventory of existing homes for sale has fallen close to the normal level of six months’ worth despite all the foreclosed homes that lenders own. The fraction of homes that are vacant is at its lowest level since 2006.

The reduced inventory of unsold homes is key, says Mark Fleming, chief economist at CoreLogic, a housing data-analysis firm. For the past couple of years, house prices have risen in the spring and then slumped; the declining supply of houses for sale is reason to believe that won’t happen again this year, he says.

 Builders began work on 26% more single-family homes in May 2012 than the depressed levels of May 2011. The stock of unsold newly built homes is back to 2005 levels. In each of the past four quarters, housing construction has added to economic growth. In the first quarter, it accounted for 0.4 percentage points of the meager 1.9% growth rate.

“Even with the overall economy slowing,” Wells Fargo Securities economists said, cautiously, in a note to clients, “the budding recovery in the housing market appears to be gradually gaining momentum.”

Economists aren’t always right, but on this at least they agree: A new Wall Street Journal survey of forecasters found 44 believe the housing market has reached its bottom; only three don’t. (The full results of the Journal’s July survey will be released at 2pm ET)

Housing is still far from healthy despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to resuscitate it by helping to push mortgage rates to extraordinary lows: 3.62% for a 30-year loan, according to Freddie Mac’s latest survey. Single-family housing starts, though up, remain 60% below the 2002 pre-bubble pace. Americans’ equity in homes is $2 trillion, or 25%, less than it was in 2002 and half what it was at the peak. More than one in every four mortgage borrowers still has a loan bigger than the value of the house, though rising home prices are reducing that fraction slowly.

Still, the upturn in housing is a milestone, a particularly welcome one amid a distressing dearth of jobs. For some time, housing has been one of the biggest causes of economic weakness. It has now—barely—moved to the plus side. “A little tail wind is a lot better than a headwind,” says economist Chip Case, the “Case” in Case-Shiller.

From here on, housing is unlikely to drag the U.S. economy down further. It will instead reflect the strength or weakness of the overall economy: The more jobs, the more confident Americans are about keeping their jobs, the more they are willing to buy houses. “Manufacturing had led growth and construction had lagged,” JPMorgan Chase economists said last week.”Now the roles are reversed: Manufacturing growth has slowed as private construction comes to life.”

Plenty could go wrong. The biggest threat is a large shadow inventory of unsold homes, homes which owners won’t put on the market because they are underwater, homes that will be foreclosed eventually and homes owned by lenders. They have been trickling onto the market, slowed in part by government efforts to delay foreclosures; a flood could reverse the recent rise in prices. Or the still-dysfunctional mortgage market could get worse. Or overly zealous regulators or a post-election change in government policy could unsettle mortgage lenders or home buyers.

But the housing bust is over.”

June Market Update

For anyone driving down the street in Carmel-by-the-Sea, it is difficult not to acknowledge the incredible increase in activity; restaurants packed on weekday nights, crowded sidewalks and people splurging in our many retail shops. The Fourth of July holiday weekend we just had was a success and clearly indicative of a economic rebound. We’re expecting the Pebble Beach Concours in August to bring yet another healthy spike in tourism and buyer activity.
Carmel
There were 19 closed sales and 13 pending transactions of homes in Carmel, so activity is looking healthy. All of the sales fell between $355K to $4.8M, spread evenly throughout that spectrum. Downtown Carmel-by-the-Sea continues to get major activity even as we get into what are historically our slower months.
Carmel Highlands
No closed sales in the Highlands this month, however June had 3 pending sales which continue to be pending. 2 of the homes are pending at a list price of right around $1M, both with ocean views. Spindrift Road had a pending sale at a list of $11.5M- quite a remarkable home. This is still a fantastic area for value when considering big ocean views combined with square footage.
Carmel Valley
11 closed homes and 22 pending sales in Carmel Valley, with the areas from Laureles Grade to the Carmel Valley village retaining the highest activity, and the Carmel Hacienda condos by Rancho Canada golf course continuing to get heavy activity as well. A 6 bedroom home on 5 acres sold in Sleepy Hollow at $3M, and one home in Quail Lodge at around $1M. The Quail Lodge area has some great golf course fairway view deals right now.
Pebble Beach
Pebble Beach is starting to pick up with 7 closed sales and 14 pendings sales. 4 of the solds were under $1M, while the other 3 were in the $3.5M to $5.5M range. This is great to see, as the high end market in Pebble Beach had been struggling, and I think a positive result of the heavy activity from vacationing Texas buyers. They always tell me how much they love the cool weather there versus the 110 degree temperatures they’re used to.

Beach Boy, Mike Love, Reduces Pebble Beach Home by 12%

Mike Love and my Dad, Terry Melcher, wrote and produced “Kokomo” together in 1989, among several other records. Article on his available Pebble Beach Property below.

Mike Love, a member of the Beach Boys, has cut the price of his 8,995-square-foot Pebble Beach real estate near Monterey, Calif., by 12% to $6 million. The property was first listed in 2009 for $7.9 million.

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Mike Love, a member of The Beach Boys, has cut the price of his 8,995-square-foot Pebble Beach estate near Monterey, Calif. by 12% to $6 million.

Built around 2003, the Tuscan-style house has seven bedrooms and seven bathrooms and sits on an acre in Pebble Beach, the coastal community known for its golf courses. An elevator services all four levels of the home. A lower basement level has a wine cellar and tasting room, a game room, a gym and a screening room. A guest apartment attached to the home has a separate kitchen.

Mr. Love says he and his wife, Jacqueline, are selling because their children are grown and aren’t going to school in Pebble Beach anymore. “It is a lifestyle change,” says Mr. Love’s wife. The couple’s primary residence is in Incline Village, near Lake Tahoe, and in recent years they used this house as a vacation home.

Current shortage of inventory creates fierce competition for Carmel Real Estate

Shortage of homes for sale creates fierce competition

The newest problem for the slowly improving Carmel real estate and Carmel Valley real estate housing markets isn’t a shortage of serious buyers, it’s a shortage of good homes.

Would-be buyers are packing open houses and downtown Carmel-by-the-Sea real estate and scrambling to make offers on properties before they are even listed. Bidding wars are erupting and driving prices higher and higher. Potential sellers and /or investors looking to trade up or down of Carmel homes , Carmel Valley homes  or Pebble Beach homes , should start thinking about taking advantage of the growing demand on the Monterey Peninsula.

Carmel & Pebble Beach Market Update for the month of May

Summer is upon us! The crowds have returned and tourism is up again. I waited 2 minutes at the corner of Dolores and Ocean today, just to take a left turn! I suppose that is a good sign.. As I write this, I’m sitting an open house at the corner of 8th and Casanova in downtown Carmel-by-the-Sea, getting plenty of activity from local renters looking to buy, and a lot of Silicon Valley, tech types looking to finally make the move.  Our Carmel real estate market has slowed just a bit against the rush of buyers we experienced this Spring, which is normal as we break into Summertime. Still, activity is well up from this time last year, and buyers continue to take advantage of the deals and record breaking, low interest rates. Below is your May real estate market report for Carmel, Carmel Valley and Pebble Beach.

Carmel
A total of 33 Carmel homes sold last month, between 581K and 3.2M. There were a handful of homes sold on the South side of Carpenter, hovering right around 1M. The Golden Rectangle, which draws it’s borders between Santa Lucia and Ocean Ave, and everything from Lincoln down to Scenic Dr, was firing around the 1.5M range. Carmel Point is starting to pick up a bit, offering the best dollar value for ocean views and proximity to the beach in downtown Carmel. Carmel-by-the-Sea real estate remains the highest going price per sq ft in the area.
Carmel Highlands
Only one home sold in the Highlands during May, on Mount Deon Rd, for $2,350,00, off abut 15% from a list of $2,775,000. This area continues to offer one of the better values of Carmel and Pebble Beach real estate for the best of both square footage and ocean views.
Carmel Valley
23 homes closed in Carmel Valley, from 130K out past Carmel Valley Village, to 2.7M in Sleepy Hollow. A great majority of sales closed were in or around the Village area. There was one sale in Quail Meadows, and one also at Quail Lodge. The Brookdale Dr area and Tierra Grande near the Mid-Valley Shopping Center also had one closed sale, each. The 55 and over condos, Hacienda Carmel, near Rancho Canada, experienced a high level of activity, as they are often the lowest priced condos in the Valley. Carmel Valley Real Estate continues to be one of the best “bang for your buck” buys right now.
Pebble Beach
A total of 12 Pebble Beach homes sold in May, most not on what is known as the “estate side”, which for the most part is the Southern side of Pebble. These sales ranged from 720K to 1.8M. I believe buyers are getting ready to start pulling the trigger more in this area very soon. Think Texas this Summer….
Please Note: While delighted to respond to real estate related inquiries, Ryan is not particularly interested in being contacted by persons with a specific interest in any “celebrity” affiliations.
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